National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity


National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity

July 29, 2020

Don’t Get Left Behind as National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity

The National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios starkly demonstrate the radical structural changes that are urgently required if the UK is to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050.

2050 is still some 30 years away but for this ambitious objective to be achieved, work will have to start immediately. Hartree Solutions is partnering up with businesses to make the changes required for these goals is to be met.

The next few decades will see huge growth in electrical demand with at least 40GW of new capacity needing to be connected to the electricity system in the next 10 years. Much of this extra capacity will come from renewable sources with at least 3GW of wind and 1.4GW of solar generation needing to be built every year from now until 2050​. As a result, net emissions from the power sector are forecast to turn negative by 2033.

Chart showing the predicted annual industrial and commercial energy demand in 2050
Source: National Grid FES 2020

Such dramatic growth in renewable energy requires a change in the investment structure. Hartree Solutions is driving this change by fully financing local and onsite generation for businesses, including solar and wind. The National Grid’s report notes that zero marginal cost generation will provide up to 71% of generation capacity in 2030 and up to 80% in 2050.

The Industrial and Commercial sector is identified as one of the hardest to decarbonise, in particular steel, chemicals and cement production. The growth of data centres, which is predicted to be 70% by 2050, will require significant amounts of energy for cooling and running servers. These large energy users are precisely the types of business that Hartree Solutions has developed its offering for.  The demand pattern of the business is analysed and the best energy solutions identified to lower energy costs and reduce carbon emissions. Any unavoidable emissions can then be offset via Hartree Solutions internationally recognized Verified Emission Reduction (VER) credits until a time when direct emission abatement is feasible.

Optimization is an essential element of the changing landscape of power generation in the UK with the National Grid scenario detailing that the concept of peak electricity demand and how it is applied in planning and operating the system is changing as the ability of demand to ramp up to take advantage of low prices increases. Hartree Solutions concept does exactly that with the output of the installed assets optimized via its artificial intelligence model to maximize output when electricity prices are at their highest and reducing it when grid demand and prices are lower.

Chart showing the connection location of installed generation capacities and peak demand
Source: National Grid FES 2020

The National Grid’s report outlines four different scenarios: Customer Transformation (CT); System Transformation (ST); Leading the Way (LW); and Steady Progression (SP). In all four of these scenarios, decentralisation is much higher than it is today, with up to 42% of generation capacity connected to distribution networks by 2050. Such a set up would see the transmission system adapt to transport electricity from one distribution network to another, rather than delivering from transmission connected generation to distribution networks. As Hartree Solutions rolls out its expanding number of onsite generation assets, these will play a key role in this updated vision on electricity distribution.

The future look of the U.K.’s network will see a big move away from large centralised power stations providing the bulk of generation in favour of more distributed energy, increasing the need for more small-scale balancing. This balancing act will open up more opportunities for those who can store or generate energy whenever they want. Hartree Solutions provides this flexibility, offering energy freedom for businesses with zero capital investment.

The National Grid Future Energy Scenarios 2020 can be downloaded here

written by
Adam Lewis

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Kansai Electric Power Group and Hartree Partners sign first term contract in Japan coupling LNG supply with carbon investments. 

Japan, 14th December 2023: Japanese power company, Kansai Electric Power Group (Kansai Group), has signed…

Japan, 14th December 2023: Japanese power company, Kansai Electric Power Group (Kansai Group), has signed a binding term agreement with Hartree Partners for the supply of LNG alongside investment in a nature-based carbon project in Australia, the first deal of its kind in Japan. The deal represents Kansai Group’s long-term commitments to decarbonisation and the provision of low-carbon energy for its customers. 

This LNG supply agreement enables KE Fuel Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd (KEFTS) to grow its LNG portfolio which will support Kansai Group’s LNG supply-demand situation and customers around the globe.  

Also, through its expertise in global carbon markets and its project portfolio in Australia, specifically focused on nature restoration, Vertree Partners, Hartree’s global carbon market arm, will support The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. (Kansai Electric) to access future supply of high-integrity carbon credits to support its Zero Carbon Vision.  

Both companies will explore potential opportunities to support Japan’s national net zero targets in areas such as LNG, renewable energy, environmental products and carbon capture and storage (CCS). 

Hartree Partners is a well-established global energy and commodities firm with decades of experience in the physical and financial energy and commodities market. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vertree Partners, is focused on decarbonisation and environmental markets.  

“Carbon credits have an important role to play in realising a zero-carbon society,” said Hideaki Ikai, Executive Officer, Operation and Trading Division in Kansai Electric. “Kansai, as a leading company of zero-carbon energy, is proactively studying ways to create a carbon neutral society, and I believe that this collaboration with Hartree Partners will accelerate our activities to achieve the goal of carbon net zero by 2050.” 

Shinichi Kudo, Chief Executive Officer, KEFTS, added “The combination of LNG and carbon credits will give us a promising option to attain our mission to provide our customers with stable energy supply and decarbonization solutions.” 

Ahmed S Al-Awa, Managing Director of Hartree Partners Singapore Pte. Limited and a Partner of Hartree Partners, said “this forward-looking move by Kansai Electric Power Group sends an important signal that carbon markets are likely to become a key component of the natural gas/LNG value chain as the sector moves to decarbonise.” 

Ariel Perez, Managing Partner of Vertree Partners added “We are committed to supporting Kansai Electric Power Group to make credible investment in the carbon market. The market is evolving rapidly, and companies may be increasingly exposed. Investments such as these support future preparedness whilst also directing finance to nature-based solutions, without which we face continued environmental degradation and eco-system loss and increase the risk of missing our global climate goals.” 


About The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. 

Kansai Electric Power Group, as a Japan’s leading electric power company, is aiming for carbon neutrality throughout the entirety of its business activities by 2050 to limit global warming, while increasing energy independence to secure energy supply for its customers, Kansai Group can be found at https://www.kepco.co.jp/english/ 

About KE Fuel Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd 

KEFTS, a 100% subsidiary of Kansai Electric, was established as an LNG trading arm of Kansai Group in April 2017. KEFTS has been supporting Kasai Electric’s LNG supply-demand balance and providing LNG portfolio for customers around the globe, and now enhances its activity to support Kansai Group’s carbon neutrality at its base in Singapore.

About Hartree Partners  

Hartree Partners, LP is a leading global energy and commodities firm with an international reputation for integrity developed over decades. Our expertise enables us to capitalise on the transition from fossil fuels to a low carbon economy. Hartree’s global breadth and reach provide a competitive presence in a comprehensive range of commodity markets, enriched by the firm’s employees who add deep insight, expertise and innovative thinking. More information concerning Hartree can be found at www.hartreepartners.com 


About Vertree Partners 

Vertree Partners enables leading companies and institutions to invest in both nature and innovative climate technologies to assist them in reaching their decarbonisation goals. Founded in 2020, Vertree is focused on driving positive environmental and social impact, and providing its customers access to existing and future supply of high-integrity environmental commodities. It does this through directly financing quality emissions reductions and removals projects; partnering with renowned project developers; investing in innovative organisations and technology-based solutions; and providing its expertise in voluntary and compliance markets, trading, market analytics and risk management. Vertree is wholly owned by Hartree Partners. 



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AGP Sustainable Real Assets and Hartree Partners Announce US Expansion of Global Solar Partnership

AGP Sustainable Real Assets Pte Ltd (AGP) and Hartree Partners, LP (Hartree) today announce the…

AGP Sustainable Real Assets Pte Ltd (AGP) and Hartree Partners, LP (Hartree) today announce the launch of AMPYR Energy USA, the second joint venture between the two organizations in just over a year.

AMPYR Energy USA will be headquartered in New York and is targeting to build a 5GW utility-scale solar PV platform across multiple US markets. With experienced renewables development professionals on the ground, the newly-created company will continue to leverage AGP’s experience in developing large-scale renewable power projects globally, and Hartree’s cutting-edge power trading analytics and zero-carbon solutions.

“With the Federal and State goals for accelerating the energy transition, the US will be one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world and a core strategic priority in realizing AMPYR’s ambition of becoming one of the largest independent renewables developer and operator globally,” said Saurabh Beniwal, Partner at AGP and Board Chair for AMPYR USA.

Since its inception in February 2021, Hartree and AGP’s European solar venture, AMPYR Solar Europe (ASE), is making swift progress towards its goal of rolling out 5GW of large-scale solar projects to establish itself as one of the largest utility scale solar platforms in Europe. ASE also recently closed a €400 million facility to support this plan.

Following in the footsteps of ASE, expectations are equally high for AMPYR USA.

“We are excited to take another step forward with AGP into the US market,” said Stephen Semlitz, Managing Director of Hartree. “This new venture allows us to further demonstrate our decades of experience in finding investment solutions, consulting, and generating sustainable and commercially viable strategies for energy renewal and regeneration.”

To learn more about the new US venture visit: www.ampyrenergyusa.com

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