National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity


National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity

July 29, 2020

Don’t Get Left Behind as National Grid Forecasts Dramatic Changes to UK Electricity

The National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios starkly demonstrate the radical structural changes that are urgently required if the UK is to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050.

2050 is still some 30 years away but for this ambitious objective to be achieved, work will have to start immediately. Hartree Solutions is partnering up with businesses to make the changes required for these goals is to be met.

The next few decades will see huge growth in electrical demand with at least 40GW of new capacity needing to be connected to the electricity system in the next 10 years. Much of this extra capacity will come from renewable sources with at least 3GW of wind and 1.4GW of solar generation needing to be built every year from now until 2050​. As a result, net emissions from the power sector are forecast to turn negative by 2033.

Chart showing the predicted annual industrial and commercial energy demand in 2050
Source: National Grid FES 2020

Such dramatic growth in renewable energy requires a change in the investment structure. Hartree Solutions is driving this change by fully financing local and onsite generation for businesses, including solar and wind. The National Grid’s report notes that zero marginal cost generation will provide up to 71% of generation capacity in 2030 and up to 80% in 2050.

The Industrial and Commercial sector is identified as one of the hardest to decarbonise, in particular steel, chemicals and cement production. The growth of data centres, which is predicted to be 70% by 2050, will require significant amounts of energy for cooling and running servers. These large energy users are precisely the types of business that Hartree Solutions has developed its offering for.  The demand pattern of the business is analysed and the best energy solutions identified to lower energy costs and reduce carbon emissions. Any unavoidable emissions can then be offset via Hartree Solutions internationally recognized Verified Emission Reduction (VER) credits until a time when direct emission abatement is feasible.

Optimization is an essential element of the changing landscape of power generation in the UK with the National Grid scenario detailing that the concept of peak electricity demand and how it is applied in planning and operating the system is changing as the ability of demand to ramp up to take advantage of low prices increases. Hartree Solutions concept does exactly that with the output of the installed assets optimized via its artificial intelligence model to maximize output when electricity prices are at their highest and reducing it when grid demand and prices are lower.

Chart showing the connection location of installed generation capacities and peak demand
Source: National Grid FES 2020

The National Grid’s report outlines four different scenarios: Customer Transformation (CT); System Transformation (ST); Leading the Way (LW); and Steady Progression (SP). In all four of these scenarios, decentralisation is much higher than it is today, with up to 42% of generation capacity connected to distribution networks by 2050. Such a set up would see the transmission system adapt to transport electricity from one distribution network to another, rather than delivering from transmission connected generation to distribution networks. As Hartree Solutions rolls out its expanding number of onsite generation assets, these will play a key role in this updated vision on electricity distribution.

The future look of the U.K.’s network will see a big move away from large centralised power stations providing the bulk of generation in favour of more distributed energy, increasing the need for more small-scale balancing. This balancing act will open up more opportunities for those who can store or generate energy whenever they want. Hartree Solutions provides this flexibility, offering energy freedom for businesses with zero capital investment.

The National Grid Future Energy Scenarios 2020 can be downloaded here

written by
Adam Lewis

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AGP Sustainable Real Assets and Hartree Partners Announce US Expansion of Global Solar Partnership

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AGP Sustainable Real Assets Pte Ltd (AGP) and Hartree Partners, LP (Hartree) today announce the launch of AMPYR Energy USA, the second joint venture between the two organizations in just over a year.

AMPYR Energy USA will be headquartered in New York and is targeting to build a 5GW utility-scale solar PV platform across multiple US markets. With experienced renewables development professionals on the ground, the newly-created company will continue to leverage AGP’s experience in developing large-scale renewable power projects globally, and Hartree’s cutting-edge power trading analytics and zero-carbon solutions.

“With the Federal and State goals for accelerating the energy transition, the US will be one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world and a core strategic priority in realizing AMPYR’s ambition of becoming one of the largest independent renewables developer and operator globally,” said Saurabh Beniwal, Partner at AGP and Board Chair for AMPYR USA.

Since its inception in February 2021, Hartree and AGP’s European solar venture, AMPYR Solar Europe (ASE), is making swift progress towards its goal of rolling out 5GW of large-scale solar projects to establish itself as one of the largest utility scale solar platforms in Europe. ASE also recently closed a €400 million facility to support this plan.

Following in the footsteps of ASE, expectations are equally high for AMPYR USA.

“We are excited to take another step forward with AGP into the US market,” said Stephen Semlitz, Managing Director of Hartree. “This new venture allows us to further demonstrate our decades of experience in finding investment solutions, consulting, and generating sustainable and commercially viable strategies for energy renewal and regeneration.”

To learn more about the new US venture visit: www.ampyrenergyusa.com

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AMPYR Solar Europe Signs Deal with Edinburgh Airport to Develop Renewable Infrastructure

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AMPYR Solar Europe (ASE), a pan-European solar developer, and Edinburgh Airport Limited today announce the signing of a deal to develop a new solar farm linked with battery technology and electric vehicle charging infrastructure at Scotland’s busiest airport.

Under the agreement, ASE along with its local construction partner, Absolute Solar & Wind will build approximately 9MW of solar PV, 1.5MW of battery storage and 40 EV charging points. The large ground-mounted solar PV system and battery will be situated next to the runway on a 16-acre plot of land, connected to the airport via a high voltage private wire network.

The development will be a cornerstone of Edinburgh Airport’s goal to achieve Net-Zero by 2040 by generating clean, renewable energy that will cover about 30% of the airport’s total consumption.

“Our commitment to a net zero future is underpinned by the various strands of work we have going on across the airport as part of our Greater Good sustainability strategy and one of the most visible projects will be this solar farm,” said Gordon Dewar, Edinburgh Airport’s Chief Executive. “We are happy to confirm our partners in this exciting step and our collaboration will enable us to implement this technology and allow us and Scotland to benefit from it as soon as possible.”

The project is in the late stage of design, with construction planned to start this summer and be fully operational by the start of next year.

“We are really pleased to be partnering with Edinburgh Airport on this important step towards a net-zero future and in support of its impressive “Greater Good” sustainability strategy,” said Andrew Gould, Executive Chairman of ASE. “Edinburgh Airport’s leadership shows a way forward to zero carbon for the airport sector. This is the first of ASE’s five renewable energy projects in Scotland to reach the delivery stage: the commitment and support of the Scottish Government and its strong policy position on climate change is clearly attractive to international investment.”

Edinburgh Airport will purchase the power produced by the solar farm through a long-term Power Purchase Agreement with ASE. This PPA will generate long-term energy and carbon savings for the airport.

“We are delighted to support Edinburgh Airport with its ongoing drive to reduce its carbon impact,” said Matthew van Staden, Senior PPA Originator at Hartree Partners. “Through our expertise within Hartree and AMPYR Solar Europe, we can drive and deliver innovative energy solutions for companies within energy-intensive sectors. Our understanding of sustainable generation and commercially viable strategies in this space helped bring this project to life for Edinburgh Airport.”

The construction is further supported by the Scottish Government’s Low Carbon Infrastructure Transition Programme, which have provided a grant for a portion of the capital expenditure.

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