How Our Customers Benefited from the UK’s Highest Ever Power Price Jump


How Our Customers Benefited from the UK’s Highest Ever Power Price Jump

May 6, 2020

The UK’s electricity system price reached a record high of £2,242/MWh on Wednesday 4th March 2020 – nearly double the previous highest power price – following lower than expected wind generation during the evening peak.

The system price spiked to the £2,242/MWh mark during the settlement period (SP) 37 (6:00-6:30 pm) and remained high at £1,708/MWh during SP 38 (6:30-7:00 pm). The highest level since 30th November 2015.

Using Hartree’s unparalleled modelling we were able to predict and benefit from these record-high prices and pass the wins on to our customers.

What caused the jump on the 4th March?

Quite simply, this tightness in the system was caused by 1) higher demand than was forecast, 2) low wind, and 3) a lack of fast response margin available on the system.

These circumstances lead to National Grid calling on its short-term operating reserve (STOR), a service that is contracted for events of system stress, resulting in the system imbalance price being calculated using the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and the Reserve Scarcity Price. The LOLP is a National Grid calculation reflecting the probability of a blackout and prices such an event at the Reserve Scarcity Price, currently set at £6,000/MWh.

What did we do to predict and benefit from the spike?

Our team of analysts used our bespoke in-house systems to model this event, the blackout risk and forecast the cost of imbalance. Let us show you what we did:

The chart above is our 5-day view of power price modelling covering the March event – as generated the day prior.

The chart’s depth represents Hartree’s scenario analysis. Over a hundred fundamental scenarios are run to represent the uncertainty of key fundamentals such as wind generation, demand and plant availability to name a few. You can see how the day before the event (the 3rd March) we forecast the power price volatility to be relatively benign as we did again several days later on the 7th March. When spare thermal margin becomes small enough the price reaction can be exponential which is as we forecast for the 4th March in many of our scenarios above. As you can see, we successfully identified the risk that became reality.

Identifying the lack of spare thermal margin is best highlighted by the chart below.

The coloured line represents Hartree’s forecast gas generation and the white line represents total gas availability. Clearly, we forecast very little fast response margin left on the system for this period creating the scarcity premium.

How our customer benefited?

We were able to identify the risk of high system prices, our customers that have flexibility were able to benefit from them. Whereas other suppliers and route-to-market providers may optimise customers assets for their own benefit, we directly pass these benefits on to our customers via our integrated supply business. Only by having the combination of our market-leading analysis combined with our supply business, is this possible.

It puts the power back into their hands – and is the unique difference between Hartree Solutions and others in the market.

How we’re planning to stay ahead of future power price volatility

As the market reacts to these unprecedented events, rest assured, Hartree Solutions will remain at the forefront of predicting these events and monetising them. Our UK Power outlook forecasts increasing price volatility, both high and low-price events with an increasing frequency never seen before.

Heavy data analysis is one of our core strengths and it can only reap rewards for our clients as more and more price volatility feeds into the UK energy market and creates more risk to end-users, but also more wins for Hartree’s customers.

written by
Adam Lewis

More market insights


Kansai Electric Power Group and Hartree Partners sign first term contract in Japan coupling LNG supply with carbon investments. 

Japan, 14th December 2023: Japanese power company, Kansai Electric Power Group (Kansai Group), has signed…

Japan, 14th December 2023: Japanese power company, Kansai Electric Power Group (Kansai Group), has signed a binding term agreement with Hartree Partners for the supply of LNG alongside investment in a nature-based carbon project in Australia, the first deal of its kind in Japan. The deal represents Kansai Group’s long-term commitments to decarbonisation and the provision of low-carbon energy for its customers. 

This LNG supply agreement enables KE Fuel Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd (KEFTS) to grow its LNG portfolio which will support Kansai Group’s LNG supply-demand situation and customers around the globe.  

Also, through its expertise in global carbon markets and its project portfolio in Australia, specifically focused on nature restoration, Vertree Partners, Hartree’s global carbon market arm, will support The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. (Kansai Electric) to access future supply of high-integrity carbon credits to support its Zero Carbon Vision.  

Both companies will explore potential opportunities to support Japan’s national net zero targets in areas such as LNG, renewable energy, environmental products and carbon capture and storage (CCS). 

Hartree Partners is a well-established global energy and commodities firm with decades of experience in the physical and financial energy and commodities market. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vertree Partners, is focused on decarbonisation and environmental markets.  

“Carbon credits have an important role to play in realising a zero-carbon society,” said Hideaki Ikai, Executive Officer, Operation and Trading Division in Kansai Electric. “Kansai, as a leading company of zero-carbon energy, is proactively studying ways to create a carbon neutral society, and I believe that this collaboration with Hartree Partners will accelerate our activities to achieve the goal of carbon net zero by 2050.” 

Shinichi Kudo, Chief Executive Officer, KEFTS, added “The combination of LNG and carbon credits will give us a promising option to attain our mission to provide our customers with stable energy supply and decarbonization solutions.” 

Ahmed S Al-Awa, Managing Director of Hartree Partners Singapore Pte. Limited and a Partner of Hartree Partners, said “this forward-looking move by Kansai Electric Power Group sends an important signal that carbon markets are likely to become a key component of the natural gas/LNG value chain as the sector moves to decarbonise.” 

Ariel Perez, Managing Partner of Vertree Partners added “We are committed to supporting Kansai Electric Power Group to make credible investment in the carbon market. The market is evolving rapidly, and companies may be increasingly exposed. Investments such as these support future preparedness whilst also directing finance to nature-based solutions, without which we face continued environmental degradation and eco-system loss and increase the risk of missing our global climate goals.” 


About The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. 

Kansai Electric Power Group, as a Japan’s leading electric power company, is aiming for carbon neutrality throughout the entirety of its business activities by 2050 to limit global warming, while increasing energy independence to secure energy supply for its customers, Kansai Group can be found at 

About KE Fuel Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd 

KEFTS, a 100% subsidiary of Kansai Electric, was established as an LNG trading arm of Kansai Group in April 2017. KEFTS has been supporting Kasai Electric’s LNG supply-demand balance and providing LNG portfolio for customers around the globe, and now enhances its activity to support Kansai Group’s carbon neutrality at its base in Singapore.

About Hartree Partners  

Hartree Partners, LP is a leading global energy and commodities firm with an international reputation for integrity developed over decades. Our expertise enables us to capitalise on the transition from fossil fuels to a low carbon economy. Hartree’s global breadth and reach provide a competitive presence in a comprehensive range of commodity markets, enriched by the firm’s employees who add deep insight, expertise and innovative thinking. More information concerning Hartree can be found at 


About Vertree Partners 

Vertree Partners enables leading companies and institutions to invest in both nature and innovative climate technologies to assist them in reaching their decarbonisation goals. Founded in 2020, Vertree is focused on driving positive environmental and social impact, and providing its customers access to existing and future supply of high-integrity environmental commodities. It does this through directly financing quality emissions reductions and removals projects; partnering with renowned project developers; investing in innovative organisations and technology-based solutions; and providing its expertise in voluntary and compliance markets, trading, market analytics and risk management. Vertree is wholly owned by Hartree Partners. 


Read Article

AGP Sustainable Real Assets and Hartree Partners Announce US Expansion of Global Solar Partnership

AGP Sustainable Real Assets Pte Ltd (AGP) and Hartree Partners, LP (Hartree) today announce the…

AGP Sustainable Real Assets Pte Ltd (AGP) and Hartree Partners, LP (Hartree) today announce the launch of AMPYR Energy USA, the second joint venture between the two organizations in just over a year.

AMPYR Energy USA will be headquartered in New York and is targeting to build a 5GW utility-scale solar PV platform across multiple US markets. With experienced renewables development professionals on the ground, the newly-created company will continue to leverage AGP’s experience in developing large-scale renewable power projects globally, and Hartree’s cutting-edge power trading analytics and zero-carbon solutions.

“With the Federal and State goals for accelerating the energy transition, the US will be one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world and a core strategic priority in realizing AMPYR’s ambition of becoming one of the largest independent renewables developer and operator globally,” said Saurabh Beniwal, Partner at AGP and Board Chair for AMPYR USA.

Since its inception in February 2021, Hartree and AGP’s European solar venture, AMPYR Solar Europe (ASE), is making swift progress towards its goal of rolling out 5GW of large-scale solar projects to establish itself as one of the largest utility scale solar platforms in Europe. ASE also recently closed a €400 million facility to support this plan.

Following in the footsteps of ASE, expectations are equally high for AMPYR USA.

“We are excited to take another step forward with AGP into the US market,” said Stephen Semlitz, Managing Director of Hartree. “This new venture allows us to further demonstrate our decades of experience in finding investment solutions, consulting, and generating sustainable and commercially viable strategies for energy renewal and regeneration.”

To learn more about the new US venture visit:

Read Article